Two Tasmanians are highly likely to be taken within the first few picks of this year’s national AFL draft – and another two won’t be far behind them, according to their peers, after bolting into first-round contention.
While AFL recruiters and scouts believe there’s a strong top-10 group of prospects in this year’s draft class, there should still be ample value – as there always is – later in the draft.
Earlier this month, foxfooty.com.au asked 20 players in this year’s draft class to nominate a ‘bolter’ prospect who they’d be prepared to use a first-round pick on.
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Star duo Colby McKercher and Ryley Sanders are widely expected to be taken within the first half a dozen picks, but fellow Tassie products James Leake and Arie Schoenmaker are also looming as players that should be taken on the first night of the draft.
Three fellow draft prospects nominated Leake, while another three suggested Schoenmaker – including McKercher.
“Some clubs really like him, others are a bit unsure. I know he had some off-field stuff that slowed down his season at the start of the year, but it really helped him build his character,” McKercher told foxfooty.com.au when speaking about Schoenmaker.
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“There’s no denying he has awesome talent on the footy field and he’s probably one of the best kicks in the draft and he’s quite an appealing size. I feel like he has so much upside.
“He can be anything if he keeps his head down and works hard – and I’m really good mates with him and I know he will.”
Suns academy star Jed Walter and Bulldogs father-son prospect Jordan Croft also nominated Schoenmaker – a 194cm defender who change the course of matches by using his run and carry then thumping the ball forward with his long, raking left boot.
“He’s such a good ball-user and so effective with his kicks, he’s a really underrated and damaging player,” Croft told foxfooty.com.au.
“I think he’ll definitely be able to go really well if he makes an AFL list.”
Like Schoenmaker, Leake has shot up draft boards during the back-half of this season where he starred as a composed defender for the Allies then as a match-winning forward for the Tassie Devils.
“He (Leake) is a gun,” Suns academy star Ethan Read told foxfooty.com.au.
“First time I saw him, I was like ‘wow, great player’. He’s just willing to compete in the air and at ground level. His kicking is pretty good, too.”
Fellow Tasmanian Jack Callinan said Leake’s growth across the past 12 months had been significant but, at the same time, “not really any surprise”.
“His whole year has been really consistent through all three lines and he’s been a really pivotal part to the Tassie Devils’ success,” Callinan told foxfooty.com.au.
Dynamic Suns academy midfielder Jake Rogers said Leake “uses his strengths really well”.
“Obviously he’s not the biggest build, but he uses his body weight really well in a marketing contest and then he‘s got great skills and great understanding and footy IQ. His ability to read the game as a half-back is exceptional,” Rogers told foxfooty.com.au.
For the record, Schoenmaker’s bolter was Sandringham’s Luke Lloyd – “he‘s just got leap and so silky, the game seems so easy to him” – while Leake nominated another Dragon in Charlie Edwards, who also received ample praise from Vic Metro MVP Ollie Murphy.
“Charlie’s back-half of the season has been amazing. His transition from backline to midfield, he racked up some incredible numbers and he’s such a good bloke,” Murphy told foxfooty.com.au.
Edwards missed out on playing for Vic Metro at the national champs, but exploded in his final seven Coates Talent League games for the Dragons, booting seven goals and averaging 21 disposals and five inside 50s per outing. His ability to burst away from congested stoppages has impressed recruiters, while his 190cm frame also appeals.
One of the biggest ‘sliders’ of this year’s draft class is Glenelg’s Ashton Moir, who could be taken outside the first round after coming into 2023 as a possible top-five chance.
But Hawthorn father-son prospect Will McCabe, who’s likely to attract a first-round bid from a rival club, would still use a first-rounder on Moir.
“Ash probably hasn‘t had the year he was looking to have, but I’ve played school football with him in the Sacred Heart forward line with him and what he did with football in hand was freakish,” McCabe told foxfooty.com.au.
“He‘s got just as much talent as the most talented person in the draft, he just hasn’t been able to showcase it this year.
“I feel like if he‘s still around after Pick 25, I’d definitely take him. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he went Round 1 just purely based off his talent.
“He‘s just got too much talent to ignore … I would have full confidence that if you get him in an AFL system, he’d be able to get the right help to perform week-in, week-out.”
Elsewhere, Sandringham Dragons’ Archie Roberts has fans, despite being one of this year’s more polarising prospects for recruiters.
Roberts’ rebounding, ability to gain territory and aerobic capacity – he finished the 2km time trial in 6:08 – is unquestionable, but scouts also have doubts over his kicking efficiency, decision-making and defensive accountability.
Both Sanders and Harley Reid said they’d take Roberts in the first round.
“I’ve played with Archie a lot and he’s a really good player. He‘s very athletic, he ran a really good 2km time, he’s a good size,” Sanders told foxfooty.com.au.
“I think probably towards the back-end of the year he wasn‘t getting the same numbers at the start of the year, but he’s definitely a player that I think is a first-round pick. It doesn’t really matter where you go as such in the draft, but I think he’s definitely worthy of a top 20-ish pick.”
Here’s who other likely draftees nominated when asked by foxfooty.com.au to name a first-round bolter in their eyes.
Murray Bushrangers’ Connor O’Sullivan said: “There’s probably two in my eyes. I think Will Graham is definitely one that stood out to me at the Allies, as well as Oscar Ryan from the Bushrangers. I might be a bit biased in saying those two. The way I saw Will go about his footy in those four games, he was able to be a backman but in that last game got the opportunity to play midfield. He took it in his stride and played a really good game. He definitely deserves a shot. And Oscar Ryan is one of the hardest at the footy I’ve ever seen. He trains as hard as anyone, he’s got skills, he’s not scared to have a crack and not scared to fail. He’s a bolter for mine.”
Northern Knights’ Nate Caddy said: “I’d say Kristian Ferronato. I wouldn’t necessarily say he’d be in the first-round mix, but he’d be on the cusp. He had an unreal year – and he played Australian basketball last year – and doing well for himself. I feel like if he had that full five or six years of just playing football … yeah, he will get better. He’ll go well. He’s a big-bodied midfielder, but he’s also built his tank a bit. His skills will get better, but he’s just determined. He was an Australian basketballer, goes and plays football for one year – and he could get drafted. I feel like the upside with him is pretty good.”
Eastern Ranges’ Nick Watson said: “Will Lorenz. I feel like he’s not talked about enough. He’s a class above with his smarts. I reckon he could have an impact on the AFL as soon as possible.”
Glenelg’s Ashton Moir said: “I really like Bodie Ryan. We grew up playing footy together and the way that he plays and the way he defends is something I haven‘t really seen in a long time. He reads the ball really well, whether that’s in the air or at ground level, and he’s a really good lockdown defender as well. He can play any role in the backline.”
Murray Bushrangers’ Darcy Wilson said: “I think Cooper Simpson. He gets talked about a little, but he missed out on the national carnival, which probably didn’t help him. He’s such a professional and if I had an early pick, I think I’d take him. He played some very good footy last year, as well as this year when he hasn’t been injured. His footy IQ is pretty high, he makes good decisions with ball in hand and then he’s pretty good with his running ability and he‘s quick.”
Gippsland Power’s Zane Duursma said: “I‘d say George Stevens – he’s probably one that I’d take in the first round. He’s a big boy and what he’s done this year is incredible. He deserves every bit to be a first-round pick.”
Subiaco’s Koltyn Tholstrup said: “I’d say Aidan O’Driscoll. He‘s quick, he can dunk a basketball – and he’d be only pushing six-foot – freakish talent, he can run and can kick a footy really well. There’s so much upside to his game and he’s got so much potential because he’s a hard worker. Off the field, he’s the funniest kid – and you can see it in his brother and his sister, such a great family. I’d definitely chuck ‘Drizzy’ in the top 20.”
Claremont’s Daniel Curtin said: “I’d say Zane Zakostelsky. He’s got a lot to offer and crazy athletic. I’m extremely proud of his growth. I remember playing futures with him throughout junior footy, I’m crazy proud of him. Seeing how he went in the (WAFL colts) grand final was absolutely awesome. I was sitting there at every contest watching them go up.”
