The silver lining of losses: Is this the last chance to re-build via an undiluted draft? (2024)

There comes a point in every AFL season where exasperated fans of bottom-of-the-ladder teams turn their attention from the fixtures to the next glimmer of hope — the AFL Draft.

It's the silver lining attached to a season of losses.

A chance to refresh, reinvigorate and maybe snare a player to immediately turn things around.

After North Melbourne's heartbreaking (and somewhat contentious) loss, and Richmond's disappointment in letting down Dusty, at least two fan bases might be looking that way already.

However, the looming introduction of the Tasmania Devils complicates matters a little.

The AFL's newest side will be given a raft of draft concessions to help build ahead of its league introduction in 2028.

It's expected that will mean priority access to multiple drafts, potentially from as early as 2026.

So does that mean those teams currently languishing towards the bottom can take solace from the ability to rebuild from one of the last uncompromised drafts?

ABC Sport is live blogging every round of the AFL and NRL seasons in 2024.

Who can dream?

As it stands North Melbourne, Richmond and West Coast hold the top three picks in this year's draft.

According to one former coach, the dream picks might just be coming a bit too late for at least two of them.

"I think Hawthorn can be excited, I think Richmond and West Coast — not as much," former AFL head coach Rodney Eade told ABC Sport.

Eade thinks time is running out for the Tigers and Eagles if they intend on using the draft to rebuild and jump up the ladder.

But the four-time premiership player thinks his old mob, Hawthorn, may have seen the writing on the wall and started its rebuild at the perfect time.

"A team like Richmond may be in trouble because they haven't been to the draft for a few years," Eade said.

"We think the concessions for Tasmania would start probably two years before they came into the competition, maybe 2026, so there's only two drafts left.

"Richmond and West Coast are two teams that have started a little bit later in that rebuilding process now, but certainly, they have some advantage this year and maybe next year."

None of North Melbourne, West Coast or Richmond have externally committed to "rebuilding", but the signs of regeneration are there.

Last year's Rising Star winner Harry Sheezel, and West Coast's Harley Reid, are seen as generational talents a list can be built around, while Brendan Gale, the outgoing Richmond president, has confirmed the club's intention to "replenish and renew".

Eade said Hawthorn was "ahead of the curve" having started its rebuild early in Sam Mitchell's tenure, noting it would have started even earlier but for some "internal roadblocks".

"They've sold it to supporters early and well, too," Eade said.

"But I can't reiterate enough how important it really is just to get the picks right."

Draft rebuilds are 'a fallacy'

Paul Roos believes re-building sides from the AFL Draft is a fallacy.

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It just can't — and shouldn't — be done according to the premiership-winning coach.

Which is a bitter pill to swallow if you're a fan of those sides currently languishing at the bottom of the ladder.

"You can't rely on the draft to go from bottom [of the ladder] to top. It's such a big gap," Roos said.

To be fair, if anyone knows — it's probably Roos.

He kick-started the Melbourne Demons resurgence while head coach in 2014, laying some of the groundwork that led to the club's drought-breaking grand final win seven years later.

Roos said despite the league's tinkering, the introduction of the Devils to the draft pool will spell trouble for bottom-of-the-ladder teams.

"We saw with the [introduction of the] Giants and the Suns, it's the worst time to sort of finish towards the bottom of the ladder," he said.

"The game has changed so much around rebuilding — I'm not a fan of rebuilding anyway — but I think you've got to be even more strategic now with Tassie coming in."

Tassie talent earmarked

The other elephant in the room is the lurking factor for Tasmanian draftees potentially wanting to head home.

The Apple Isle produced one of its strongest draft classes in 2023, producing two Tasmanian top 10 picks in Colby McKercher (pick 2, North Melbourne) and Ryley Sanders (pick 6, Western Bulldogs).

Tasmania also produced James Leake (pick 17, GWS) and Arie Schoenmaker (pick 62, St Kilda) as well as recent number one mid-year draft selection Geordie Payne (North Melbourne).

Prior to this, it had produced just three drafted players in the previous four years. There are a total of 24 Tasmanians currently in the AFL system.

Roos and Eade both highlighted a need for mature bodies at the new Tasmanian side, meaning existing clubs may have the chance to trade picks for experienced talent.

But in short, there's no easy way to rejuvenate a list from cellar-dwellers to ladder-leaders.

"You know, based on history, they're [Tasmania] gonna get a truckload of first round draft picks over probably a two or three year period — so you got to be smart," Roos said.

"I don't think there's an easy answer to it.

"Be smart, be creative, and maybe having to bring in some 20 to 23 year olds, and really attack the free agent market."

North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast, Adelaide and St Kilda currently hold the top five selections in the end of year draft, per their bottom of the ladder positions.

Gold Coast and Fremantle each currently have three first-round picks as a result of some creative forward trading, while ladder-leaders Sydney has two late-round selections.

The draft order is initially structured as the season's ladder in reverse, but selections can be traded among clubs and across years.